Tropical storm ‘Rusty’ hits global ore trade.

Radar pic of ‘Rusty’, Feb 26- Australian Met Bureau

Tropical cyclone “Rusty” has shut down Australian ports that handle 43% of global iron ore exports, creating havoc amidst heavy rainfall; in the process, as many as 74 ships have been delayed. Analysts now say that there could be significant short term disruptions to global iron ore trade.

Western Australian ports handled iron-ore shipments totalling more than 500 million metric tons last year. Analysts now expect that the backlog at Port Headland- the world’s largest iron ore port- and others will hit exports over the next month, delaying ships, hitting demand and dropping freight rates. Capesizes will be the worst hit.

“Even without any significant damage, the backlog will take weeks to work through,” says Alphabulk, according to a Bloomberg report that adds, “Reduced Australian cargoes may spur additional ore shipments from second-ranking exporter Brazil, which would result in longer-distance voyages, it said. China is the leading importer of the commodity”.

The drop in ore exports may be as much as 5 million tons, says Melinda Moore of Standard Bank Plc. Alphabulk agrees, saying, “Prolonged rainfall from Rusty expected over mines owned by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. “could lead to more significant long-term loss of production.” 

The disruption may well be temporary, though. As Wood Mackenzie’s analyst Paul Grey Port says, steel mills in China have ample inventories, “so it (Rusty) is not going to be something that sends shock waves and panic around the market.” 

Analysts expect Brazil to compensate for the Australian disruptions somewhat and even provide some succour for shipowners because of the greater ton-miles involved in carrying Brazilian ore to China. “We could see increased exports from Brazil, and with increased transportation distances, we could actually see a tightening of an otherwise lacklustre market,” Alphabulk said.

Even so, Capesize hire rates dropped 5.9 per cent to $4,447 at the end of February, the lowest since Sept. 17.

Fresh water 'swamping' increases tropical storm's intensity by up to 50%, new research says

Phenomena could increase with climate change.

pic source: NASA

Large amounts of fresh water dumped into sensitive areas of oceans around the world are making tropical revolving storms (TRS) - commonly called typhoons, cyclones or hurricanes - up to 50% more intense and deadly, says research published in the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition (PNAS). The organisation, set up in 1914, claims to be one of the world's most-cited multidisciplinary scientific publications, and says it brings into focus "cutting-edge research reports" in biological, physical, and social sciences. 

Their analysis, a collaborative effort between scientists based in China, the US and elsewhere, says that the possibility of the two synchronous events- a TRS and the affected ocean being swamped with fresh water- are relatively small, at between 10 and 23 percent, but the outcome is significant in terms of the large effect they can have on storm systems.  They can also have a huge impact on human populations, according to Karthik Balaguru at the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the scientist who authored the report. “Sixty percent of the world’s population lives in areas affected by tropical cyclones,” he says, adding, “Cyclone Nargis killed more than one hundred and thirty eight thousand people in Burma in 2008." Examples of areas particularly at risk from fresh water swamping include the Indian Ganges River system in the Bay of Bengal, the Amazon River system and the western Pacific Ocean, where storms are usually accompanied by heavy rain. 

A TRS system normally weakens with time because the water cools off, thanks to the strong winds prevalent. However, in conditions when a TRS blows over an area where a large amount of fresh water is flowing into the ocean (often about 50 meters below the surface) from rivers or due to rain, the fresh water forms a 'barrier layer' that insulates the surface layer from the denser (and colder) water below. As a result, the cooling effect is reduced by as much as 36 percent, effectively making the ocean pump up to 7 percent more heat into the cyclone. The end result: A TRS that may be 50 percent more deadly. 

Researchers say that climate change is having an effect on the 'ocean water cycle'-water movement between the oceans and the atmosphere- and studies will have to be conducted again as climate patterns change in a warmer world. They point out that climate change is making the phenomena accelerate, as melting glaciers and the amount of rain falling over oceans has a direct effect on the salinity of water- and, indirectly, on 'barrier layers.'

In the present study, scientists studied 587 TRS systems over two decades in the Atlantic, Pacific and the Indian Oceans before coming to a conclusion. They are now hoping that the new findings will help predict TRS systems better. "We can predict the paths cyclones take, but we need to predict their intensity better to protect people susceptible to their destructive power,” said Balaguru.

 “A 50% increase in intensity can result in a much larger amount of destruction and death."

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